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Agora Energiewende_German Power Market 2019 Summary

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Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019 Dear reader, In 2019 surveys have shown that climate protection and the energy transition is the number one concern. Climate change becomes more visible every year. Right at this moment, wildfires have wrought destruction across land the size of Ireland and Switzerland combined. The FridaysForFuture movement has succeeded in raising public awareness for the scientific findings and putting pressure on politics to act. The political response however, has been tepid. At the same time, the energy transition has moved forward in many fields: Electricity generation from coal has declined substantially leading to a fall of 50 million tonnes in CO 2 emissions, a record low. This decline was only exceeded in 2009 during the great financial crisis. Meanwhile, generation from renewables has increased considerably. As a result, wind and solar provided more electricity than lignite and hard coal combined. Unfortunately, such advanced cannot be said of the other sectors. Indeed, emissions in the transport sector even increased in 2019 compared to 2018 levels. Furthermore, the lack of newly installed onshore wind power plants will lead to a decline in their growth rate in the coming years meaning the increase in renewable energy generation will slow down in the future. This document contains the key findings, the press release, the ten most important take-aways as well as the graphics of the report. You can find the full report in German free of charge on the website. I wish you an interesting read! Patrick Graichen Director Agora Energiewende Key Findings: 1 In 2019 greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by over 50 million tonnes of CO 2 thanks to a sharp drop in lignite and hard coal generation which are now around 35% lower than in 1990. Meanwhile, CO 2 emissions from the buildings and transport sectors have risen due to an increase in oil and gas consumption. The decline in CO 2 emissions can be attributed to the higher CO 2 prices in the EU ETS, a significant increase in renewable generation and lower electricity consumption. 2 Renewable energy broke a new record, reaching almost 43 percent of gross electricity consumption. Unfortunately, the collapse in wind capacity expansions to less than one gigawatt per year means the energy transition is entering the 2020s with a heavy burden. Whilst annual growth in renewables has been consistently in the 15 terawatt hours in recent years, the lack of available space and permits for wind capacity puts its continuation in jeopardy. 3 4 When it comes to the costs of renewable energy, the peak is in sight: the EEG levy will rise again in 2020 to 6.77 cents per kilowatt hour, but is expected to fall in 2022 at the latest, thanks to the lower costs of renewable energy. Older, more expensive power plants will then increasingly fall out of the support scheme. In addition, from 2021, part of the revenue from the Fuel Emission Trading Act (BEHG) will be used to reduce the EEG levy. As a result, the price of electricity is likely to fall slightly in the 2020s rather than rise. Surveys have shown that climate protection and the energy transition are the number one concern amongst German society in 2019, far ahead of immigration and pensions. This fact is not Indeed, the climate package adopted by the German government in September is not sufficient to achieve the 2030 climate protection targets. There is a considerable need for improvement, particularly in the areas of transport, buildings and industry. 2

Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019 Press release: Emission certificate prices push greenhouse gas emissions and coal-fired power generation to record lows in 2019 The share of renewables in electricity consumption rose to almost 43 per cent in 2019. However, progress in the power sector is offset by rising greenhouse gas emissions in the building and transport sectors. Public awareness for the importance of climate protection continues to rise: since May 2019, it has consistently been the most pressing political issue in the eyes of the German population. These and other findings are contained in a review of 2019 conducted by Agora Energiewende. Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by more than 50 million tonnes in 2019; emissions now stand goal of achieving a 40 per cent emissions reduction by 2020 is thus within reach. The power sector is solely responsible for this decline in emissions, as significantly less electricity was generated using hard coal and lignite, while generation from renewables rose to cover 42.6 per cent of electricity demand, a nearly five percentage point increase over 2018. These are just some of the findings presented in the annual review released this week by the Berlinbased energy think tank Agora Energiewende, titled State of Affairs 201 first year in which generation from wind, hydro, solar and biogas plants exceeded the total generation from coal and nuclear. Higher certificate prices in the EU emissions trading system have been the major driver of lower power sector emissions. In combination with increased electricity production from renewables and lower electricity consumption, higher emissions prices led fossil-fuel power plants to significantly reduce their electricity production during many hours in 2019, as their generation was not price competitive. Power generation by hard coal-fired power plants dropped by 31 per cent, and that of lignite-fired power plants by 22 per cent. Lower coal-based generation also benefited natural gas-fired power plants, which require fewer emission certificates to generate power; natural gas-based generation increased by 11 per cent. In sharp contrast to the progress made in the power sector, emissions in the building and transport sectors increased in 2019. These sectors consumed more natural gas, heating oil, petrol and diesel than in the previous year. Lower emissions in the power sector were thus partially offset by higher emissions in the building and transport sectors. In the transport sector, higher emissions were driven first and foremost by an increasing share of heavy vehicles with large combustion engines, such as SUVs. The expansion of PV capacity and beneficial climatic conditions for wind generation were the primary factors encouraging a higher share of generation says Dr. Patrick Graichen, Director of Agora Enerlapsed by more than 80 per cent over the last two years and has thus nearly ground to a halt. Furthermore, as bids from industry to construct wind farms did not fully exploit the capacity budget in 2019, we will not see robust expansion figures for wind energy in the coming years either. It is now up to the federal government to make policy adjustments so that wind power capacity continues to expand. Wind is the workhorse of the energy transition, and without wind power, we cannot succeed in phasing However, climate-protection progress in the power sector stands is undermined by a general lack of further ambition in energy and climate policy, especially in the heating and transport sectors. 3

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