The Energy Transition in the Power Sector: State of Affairs in 2019 A review of major developments of 2019, and an outlook for 2020 Patrick Graichen, Fabian Hein, Christoph Podewils BERLIN, 6. JANUARY 2020 Key Findings 1 2 3 4 In 2019 greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by over 50 million tonnes of CO 2 thanks to a sharp drop in lignite and hard coal generation which are now around 35% lower than in 1990. Meanwhile, CO 2 emissions from the buildings and transport sectors have risen due to an increase in oil and gas consumption. The decline in CO 2 emissions can be attributed to the higher CO 2 prices in the EU ETS, a significant increase in renewable generation and lower electricity consumption. The rising share of SUVs in the transport sector is responsible for rising emissions.
Key Findings 1 2 3 4 Renewable energy broke a new record, reaching almost 43 percent of electricity consumption. Unfortunately, the collapse in wind capacity expansions to less than one gigawatt per year means the energy transition is entering the 2020s with a heavy burden. Whilst annual growth in renewables has been consistently around15 terawatt hours in recent years, the lack of available space and permits for wind capacity puts its continuation in jeopardy. Decisive political action is now required if the 2030 renewable energy targets are to be achieved. Key Findings 1 2 3 4 When it comes to the costs of renewable energy, the peak is in sight: the EEG levy will rise again in 2020 to 6.77 cents per kilowatt hour, but is expected to fall in 2022 at the latest, thanks to the lower costs of renewable energy. Older, more expensive power plants will then increasingly fall out of the support scheme. In addition, from 2021, part of the revenue from the Fuel Emission Trading Act (BEHG) will be used to reduce the EEG levy. As a result, the price of electricity is likely to fall slightly in the 2020s rather than rise.