OFFSHORE WIND A watershed moment for offshore wind power 2017 marked a transition for offshore wind power. For the first time, project developers announced that they would do without government remuneration. Also, the first floating wind farm went into operation. This changes some basic preconditions. The outcome of the first tendering of offshore wind farms in Germany in April was rather surprising, even for the majority of experts. Energy providers EnBW and Örsted (formerly Dong Energy) were awarded four projects with a total rated capacity of 1,500 MW – three of them at the market premium bid of zero cents/kWh. In anticipation of falling costs and rising electricity prices, they held out the prospect of doing without public funding altogether. These wind farms will not be connected to the grid until the middle of the next decade and the investment decision will only have to be made in a few years, in accordance with the law. The bidders therefore have time to wait for costs and prices to develop. If they retreat, they would pay a relatively small penalty compared to the amount invested. The price slump was looming. In previous tenders in the Netherlands and Denmark, the reference values fell successively, from more than 7 to less than 5 cents. Until then, the government-fixed remuneration had averaged 12 to 14 cents. The German auction result quickly prompted the Dutch government to adapt its tender design and in the future allow only zero-cent bids. And it did so successfully: for the first project following the new method, there were several bids at the end of 2017. The decision now falls on the basis of soft criteria such as the technical quality of the plans for the power station or tenderer experience. Decline in government remuneration for offshore wind 15 ct/kWh 12 9 6 3 0 EEG 2012 14.5 ct 10.7 ct 5.5 ct The revenue for wind energy on the electricity market is forecast to amount to 2.6 ct/kWh in 2020, 5.3 ct/kWh in 2025, and 7.6 ct/kWh in 2035 (with an uncertainty of 20 per cent) 7.3 ct 10.3 ct 6.1 ct 5.0 ct 6.0 ct 0.0 ct 0.0 ct 2012 2015 2018 2019 2020 2024 2025 Butendiek offshore wind farm with a total output of 288 MW. Government remuneration for offshore wind energy in different tenders in various countries after (planned) commissioning in cents/kilowatt hour; dotted line: Predicted achievable electricity prices for offshore wind (Energy Brainpool) Source: Stiftung Offshore, diagram by Ahnen&Enkel 20 Wind Industry in Germany
Economic report | OFFSHORE WIND In May, the first offshore wind farm in the USA went into operation. The Block Island project just off the Atlantic coast island of the same name also gets by without government subsidies. But this is due to the high electricity prices on the island, which diesel generators had previously supplied. It is also a small project with only six turbines and a total rated output of 30 MW. One of the next growth markets is Taiwan. The government there is currently awarding the first projects totalling 5,500 MW – with temptingly high feed-in tariffs of 16 cents. Europe remains the only major market Gode Wind offshore wind farm in the German North Sea with a total output of 582 MW. The only major market for offshore wind to date is Europe. In the past year, installed capacity rose by a record level of 3,100 to 15,800 MW. This is largely due to the United Kingdom (1,700 MW) and Germany (1,300 MW). The total installed capacity in Europe, and thus the world, is restricted to 98 percent to five countries: United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium. The main reason is that 95 percent of all shorelines with 50 metres and more are too deep for the foundations of the wind turbines. This also applies to France, Portugal and Norway. Floating foundations therefore offer a great deal of hope in this regard. In October, the first floating wind farm known as “Hywind” began commercial operation off the coast of Scotland. The project could now usher in a whole new stage of development. Rapid rise in offshore wind turbines Rotor diameter of offshore wind turbines 76 m 2.0 MW 145 m 4.8 MW 2000 2005 2010 2016 2020 2025 Previous and planned growth in size of offshore wind turbines in MW Source: Stiftung Offshore, diagram by Ahnen&Enkel 200 m ~13–15 MW Wind Industry in Germany 21
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