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World Energy Investment 2019

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  • Funding
  • Solar
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  • Global
  • Trends
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Fuel supply Conventional

Fuel supply Conventional spending is turning the corner The reaction of the large, conventional operators to lower prices since 2014 has had four main components: • Maximise revenue from existing operations; the share of brownfield spending has risen, up to 67% of the total in 2018 from less than 60% in 2016. • Cut costs wherever possible. • A greater focus on smaller assets that can be brought to market more quickly, notably shale. • Defer spending on more complex new projects until they are redesigned and simplified to be competitive at lower prices. There are signs in the 2019 guidance that conventional spending in general, and offshore investment in particular, may be turning a corner. This is being led by the Middle East and Latin America. Shale assets have rapidly increased their weight in global upstream investment this decade, reaching 26% of the total in 2018. For 2019, we expect a marginal decline in this share, to 24%, as the reduction of investment anticipated by shale pure operators is only partially compensated by rising spending in shale basins announced by some of the majors. These changes were reflected in the composition of upstream spending. Conventional oil and gas projects remain the predominant channel for investment, but their two-thirds share of the total in 2018 was a historical low. Within this segment, spending on offshore projects has been squeezed hard; the offshore share in upstream spending fell by over 10 percentage points between 2016 and 2018. 86 | World Energy Investment 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Fuel supply Time for a rebound in conventional project approvals? (1/2) Crude oil and gas conventional resources sanctioned by asset type Crude oil Gas Billion boe 25 20 15 10 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NPS SDS Annual avg. 2018-25 Offshore Onshore 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NPS SDS Annual avg. 2018-25 Note: The NPS and SDS show the annual average of sanctioned resources between 2018 and 2025 under the IEA New Policy Scenario (NPS) and Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) respectively. Source: IEA analysis with historical sanctioned resources based on Rystad Energy (2019). 87 | World Energy Investment 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

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