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World Energy Investment 2019

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Fuel supply Diverging

Fuel supply Diverging company trends in investment activity in the United States The share of the United States in global upstream spending has risen from 17% to 24% over the last ten years, but this upward trend is likely to be checked in 2019. There are divergent investment trends between the US independents and the majors. Increased demands for capital discipline and investor returns are putting a cap on spending by the independents, especially for those companies operating exclusively in shale plays. However, the impact on production is likely to be mitigated by a decrease in the inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and further operational efficiency. Pioneer, Continental, WPX Energy, Parsley Energy, Centennial Resource Developments, Apache, and Noble all announced spending cuts for 2019 (while maintaining robust production growth projections). Our assessment, based on guidance provided by pure-shale operators and US independents, suggests that upstream investment from this group in 2019 could be lower by some 6% than in 2018. For the moment, the commitment to capital discipline appears to be holding despite higher prices. In contrast, international oil companies have maintained or increased their upstream US plans. Exxon and Chevron have made the Permian Basin a centrepiece of their strategies, while Shell and BP are increasing their positions. This will give the majors a much greater role in US supply and could encourage further consolidation in the sector. As a result, 2019 is on track to be the first year where investment growth in shale assets passes from independents to big oil companies. This is a remarkable change for a sector which has until now been dominated by smaller operators. The growing footprint of large players means that investments might become less volatile. 94 | World Energy Investment 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

Fuel supply The majors are making their mark on shale Upstream investment by majors, adjusted for cost inflation 100% 80% Conventional onshore 60% Oil sands 40% Offshore 20% 0% 7% 8% 10% 10% 9% 12% 19% 21% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E Shale/tight oil Source: IEA analysis with calculations based on IEA upstream investment cost indices, company reports and Rystad Energy (2019). 95 | World Energy Investment 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

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