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World Energy Investment 2019

  • Text
  • Funding
  • Solar
  • Upstream
  • Renewables
  • Global
  • Trends
  • Projects
  • Financing
  • Efficiency
  • Sector

Fuel supply The shift to

Fuel supply The shift to shorter-cycle conventional projects continues… Time to market and average resource size of projects by FID year Time to market Average resource size Years 6 5 Million boe 500 400 4 300 3 2 200 1 100 0 2010-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20E 0 2010-14 2015-16 2017-18 2019-20E Deepwater Shallow water Onshore Note: Time to market indicates the time from final investment decision (FID) to production start-up. We examine conventional oil and gas projects (i.e. excluding unconventional resources such as shale/tight oil) whose sanctioned resource volumes are 50 million boe or more. Source: IEA analysis with calculations based on disclosures by company announcements and Rystad Energy (2019). 96 | World Energy Investment 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

…reflecting industry preferences to limit upfront capital outlays and reduce exposure to longer-term risks Fuel supply The emphasis on shorter cycle projects highlighted in previous editions of the World Energy Investment Report (see IEA, 2018a) continues in 2019. There remains a preference among many operators to limit upfront capital spending, accelerate paybacks, and reduce exposure to long-term risks. Greater exposure to shale is one aspect of this, but companies are also rethinking the way they approach conventional projects. The overall result is a shift away from large, bespoke projects (often characterised by delays and cost overruns) towards smaller, standardised ones, with a strong accompanying focus on efficiency and capital discipline. This also means that the oil and gas industry is increasingly relying on assets that generate cash flow more quickly but also that deplete at a more rapid pace. This could increase the possibility of market volatility. Since the 2014 downturn, the oil and gas industry has moved away from its traditional focus on larger-scale, capital-intensive projects with long lead times. The trend has instead been to fast-track the execution of smaller projects or to divide large projects into multiple phases. Lead times for new projects have fallen sharply. In the offshore sector in particular, projects are moving from the final investment decision to first production much more quickly than they used to, and at lower costs. This experience is now encouraging operators to sanction new and larger projects. Based on guidance announced by companies, we expect that in 2019 and 2020 the average size of offshore projects will increase by over 20% but without a corresponding increase in time-to-market. 97 | World Energy Investment 2019 | IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

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