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Global Wind Report 2018

In 2018, the wind sector once again grew in strength. Wind energy is now one of the cheapest forms of electricity in many markets. Installations of wind capacity overtook new fossil fuel capacity in many mature and emerging markets for the first time. These are strong fundamentals for a now mainstream energy source.

GWEC’s Task forces and

GWEC’s Task forces and committees Offshore wind going global The current share of the total global offshore installations represents four per cent of the total 591 GW installed. By 2025, the share is expected to exceed 10 per cent and the total installed based could reach 100 GW. While Europe will continue to add 3-4 MW per year based on current targets and planned auctions, Asia could add between 5 to 7 GW of new installations per year if governments stay committed and investments are executed. Key growing offshore wind markets in Asia are Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. In these markets, investments in projects and supply chains are progressing, and projects are maturing. India and Vietnam are in early stages, but with an offshore wind potential of 27 GW (Vietnam) and 60 GW (India). Vietnam has already installed 99 MW offshore capacity. The administrative processes are still time-consuming, but a stable support system is in place with a FIT of 98 USD/ MWh. India’s offshore potential is located off the coast of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. The government has started to execute auctions for solar PV and onshore wind since 2017 and has set an offshore wind target of 5 GW by 2022 and 30 GW by 2030. The Japanese government passed a new Offshore Wind Law, which now gives it a mandate to define a number of areas for offshore wind development, with a view to holding some kind of competitive process for award of 30-year projects by mid-2020. There is a clear need for Japan to turn to offshore wind to meet an expected shortfall in power generation, and increasing dependence on fossil fuel imports, but setting an ambitious plan and whether it is able to establish appropriate frameworks for planning and licensing will be decisive. In North America, GWEC Market Intelligence expects about 1 GW towards 2023 to 2025, as activity in the north-eastern federal states remains high (e.g. an offshore tender in New York for projects with 200 to 800 MW capacity with a 25-year PPA launched, Massachusetts’s auction for offshore zones executed). The World Bank Group has announced that it is creating a financing stream for offshore wind that could play a vital role in de-risking projects in developing countries and has teamed up with GWEC to help develop the next group of new offshore markets. Role of government support In order for the offshore industry to go global, market conditions need to be in place to support growth. Besides administrative processes for permitting and approval, this includes support from governments for investments in projects and supply chain through FIT or auction mechanisms. There were several examples during 2018 of government support. In Germany, the offshore target is most likely to increase to 20 GW by 2030; France decided to execute an offshore auction in 2019 having settled a discussion about support levels; UK announced in June 2018 to launch further auctions starting from 2019 onwards with the plan to execute auctions every second year; after an intense discussion during 2018, Taiwan announced in January 2019 to limit the reduction of the FITsystem to about six per cent, thus enabling projects to move forward. Executed offshore wind auctions MW 2,434 950 1,484 2016 Germany UK 5,426 740 3,196 2017 2018 Denmark Taiwan 3,283 1,664 1,490 1,600 19 Netherlands GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2018 33

Task Forces and Working Groups Offshore wind technology continues to advance With governments and industry around the world committing to offshore wind, offshore wind technology is advancing to increase efficiency and lower cost. During 2018, the trend for larger There are already 1.3GW of offshore wind auctions planned for 2019. Two offshore auctions were executed in Europe (Germany’s 2nd offshore, average winning bid of 46 EUR/MWh and Netherlands’ Borselle V, average winning bid of 55 EUR/MWh) including already the new technology. Several LOCE projections see the global and average LCOE for offshore wind to further decrease; emerging and developing offshore markets might start at a higher LCOE-level but utilise experience from more mature markets and the new technology to lower LCOE. offshore turbines continued. GE had already introduced its Haliade X 12MW offshore turbine in 2017, expected to be commercially operational as of 2024/ 25. In 2018 MHI Vestas upgraded its turbine to 10MW to be used for several projects in Netherlands and United Kingdom and the Vineyard project in USA (preferred supplier status). Goldwind introduced an 8MW turbine for projects on the southeast coast of China. Siemens- Gamesa’s 10MW turbine is expected to be online by 2022. 34 GWEC.NET

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