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Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019

Die aktuellste Studie der IRENA zeigt auf, dass über die Hälfte des aus EE-Anlagen generierten Stroms, zu geringeren Kosten generiert werden kann, als bspw. Strom aus den neuesten Kohlekraftwerken. © IRENA 2020, IRENA (2020), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. www.irena.org

RENEWABLE POWER

RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 The global weighted-average total installed cost of onshore wind farms thus declined by 5% in 2019, year-on-year, falling from USD 1 549/kW in 2018 to USD 1 473/kW in 2019, as wind turbine prices continued to decline, while ongoing reductions in BoS costs also occurred. Indeed, the cost declines experienced over the year appear to have come more or less evenly from both factors. Initial data suggests turbine prices declined by between 5-6% in 2019. Total installed costs declined year-on-year in 2019 by 9% in India, 5% in the United States and China, and 34% in Spain, with the United Kingdom experiencing a 2% increase. The figure for Spain is somewhat exaggerated, as the market has only just revived. A comparison to the more presentative 2017 total installed costs yields a reduction of 13%. Improvements in wind turbine technology have resulted in larger rotor diameters, swept blade areas, name plate capacities and hub-heights. This has driven an improvement in capacity factors that means today’s turbines harvest more electricity from the same resource than their predecessors. As a result, overall energy output has been on the rise, leading to a consistent trend towards higher capacity factors, globally. Between 2010 and 2019, the global weighted-average capacity factor for onshore wind increased by almost a third, from just over 27% in 2010 to 36% in 2019. The year 2019 saw an increase of around 5%, from 34% in 2018 to 36%. There has also been wide variation between countries in capacity factor growth and average capacity factor levels. Between 2010 and 2019, Brazil, Denmark and Spain experienced increases in weighted-average capacity factors in excess of 40%, while Canada saw an increase of 21%, China, 24% and France, 25%. In absolute terms, in 2019, the weighted-average capacity factor of new projects added in Brazil hit 51%, while the weighted-average was 44% in the United States, 39% in Spain, and 32% in both China and India. In 2019, the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind, at USD 0.053/kWh, was just 6% higher than the cheapest new source of fossil fuelfired electricity (coal, which had an LCOE of around USD 0.05/kWh). The country-level weighted average LCOE for new projects commissioned in 2019 was lower than the cheapest fossil fuel-fired option in Argentina, where the weighted-average LCOE was USD 0.049.kWh, as well as in Brazil (USD 0.048/kWh), China (USD 0.047/kWh), Egypt (USD 0.049/kWh), India (USD 0.049/kWh), Finland (USD 0.039/kWh), Sweden and the United States (both at USD 0.046/kWh). Onshore wind is now consistently undercutting fossil fuels in a growing number of markets, often by a substantial amount. Offshore wind Total installed costs of offshore wind farms declined by 18% between 2010 and 2019. Given that some years saw a relatively thin market for offshore wind, however, with deployment being dominated in different years by markets in different stages of maturity, there is a significant degree of year-onyear volatility in the total installed costs of newly commissioned offshore wind farms. The global weighted-average installed costs for offshore wind declined from USD 4 650/kW to USD 3 800/kW between 2010 and 2019 (Figure 1.6). A range of factors are behind this, with the overall evolution in installed costs being driven by efforts to reduce the overall cost of electricity from a project. As a result, there are some factors that push up individual cost components, while at the same time reducing others. The trend to larger turbines is one example of this. Per kW, these tend to be slightly more expensive, but they create savings when it comes to installation – and in some cases, foundations – as well as helping reduce Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs, while increasing capacity factors (with higher hubheights and swept areas). In Europe up to around 2013, the shift to deployment farther offshore and in deeper waters, as well as the fact that supply chains were only just beginning to scale meant that in some cases upward pressure on installed costs occurred due to increasing installation, foundation and grid connection expenses. More recently, however, most of these factors have either plateaued (e.g., distance from shore) or are starting to now generate cost reductions. These have occurred most notably via the achievement of economies of scale and greater competition in supply chains, with optimised logistic hubs for multiple-GW wind farm zones and increased developer experience. 30

LATEST COST TRENDS Figure 1.6 Global weighted average total installed costs, capacity factors and LCOE for offshore wind power, 2010-2019 7 000 Total installed cost Capacity factor Levelised cost of electricity 60% 0.30 2019 USD/kW 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 4 650 5 326 4 741 5 738 5 260 5 245 4 280 95 th percentile 4 683 4 245 3 800 5 th percentile Capacity factor 50% 40% 30% 20% 36.8% 45.4% 40.4% 37.9% 30.2% 39.8% 39.0% 45.1% 42.2% 43.5% 2019 USD/kWh 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.175 0.161 0.177 0.183 0.154 0.169 0.146 0.127 0.131 0.115 1 000 10% 0.05 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database. At the same time, the continuing innovation in turbine technology, larger turbine ratings, and greater experience with project development, saw average capacity factors rise from 37% in 2010 to 44% in 2019. In 2019, in comparison with 2018, there was a slight decline (-1%) in the global weighted-average LCOE of offshore wind projects commissioned. This takes the decline in the LCOE of offshore wind between 2010 and 2019 to 29%, from USD 0.162/kWh to USD 0.115/kWh. In country-specific terms, there has been a wide variation in LCOE declines since 2010. In Europe, which has the largest deployment of offshore wind, projects commissioned between 2010 and 2019 recorded a 27% fall in LCOE, from USD 0.159/kWh to USD 0.117/kWh. The largest drop occurred in Belgium, where LCOE fell 40% between 2010 and 2019, from USD 0.198/ kWh to USD 0.119/kWh. In Germany and the United Kingdom, which were the biggest markets for commissioned projects in Europe, between 2010 and 2019 there were 33% and 26% drops respectively, with the LCOEs in both countries falling to around USD 0.12/kWh for projects commissioned in 2019. In Asia, the LCOE reduction between 2010 and 2019 reached 39% (from USD 0.180/kWh to USD 0.112/ kWh). This was driven by China, which has over 95% of offshore wind installations in Asia. Concentrating solar power In 2019, projects totalling around 600 MW were commissioned, worldwide, but, with only a handful of these occurring annually since 2015, cost trends have been volatile. In addition, while projects were completed in Israel, Kuwait, South Africa and China in 2019, cost trends for that year require even more explanation than usual. The reason for this that two much delayed Israeli projects, one parabolic trough and one tower, finally came online. These projects were tendered in 2012, since when technology costs and performance have changed significantly. Notably, one of the plants does not include any thermal energy storage, which is the norm in reducing LCOE to more competitive levels. To allow for these two plants’ impact, we have reported weightedaverage values for CSP that both include and exclude them, with the latter providing a better view of CSP industry trends. 31

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