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Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019

Die aktuellste Studie der IRENA zeigt auf, dass über die Hälfte des aus EE-Anlagen generierten Stroms, zu geringeren Kosten generiert werden kann, als bspw. Strom aus den neuesten Kohlekraftwerken. © IRENA 2020, IRENA (2020), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. www.irena.org

RENEWABLE POWER

RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 INTRODUCTION Onshore wind turbine technology has made significant advances over the past decade. Larger and more reliable turbines, along with higher hub heights and larger rotor diameters, have combined to increase capacity factors. In addition to these technology improvements, total installed costs, O&M costs and LCOEs have been falling as a result of economies of scale, increased competitiveness and maturity of the sector. In 2019, onshore wind deployment was second only to solar PV. Today, virtually all onshore wind turbines are horizontal axis turbines, predominantly using three blades and with the blades “upwind”. The largest share of the total installed cost of a wind project is related to the wind turbines. Contracts for these typically include the towers, installation, and delivery, except in China. Wind turbines now make up between 64% and 84% of the total installed costs of an onshore wind project (IRENA, 2018a). Indeed, with declining installation costs, the contribution turbines make to the overall share of total installed costs is now trending towards the higher end of the range. The other major cost categories include the installation costs, grid connection costs, and development costs. The latter includes environmental impact assessment and other planning requirement costs, project costs, and land costs – with these representing the smallest share of total installed cost. WIND TURBINE CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS Wind turbine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) offer a wide range of designs, catering for different site characteristics, 14 different grid accessibility and different policy requirements in different locations. These variations may also include different land-use and transportation requirements, and the different technical and commercial requirements of the developer. Turbines with larger rotor diameters increase energy capture 15 at sites with the same wind speed and this is especially useful in exploiting marginal locations. In addition, the higher hub heights that have become common enable higher wind speeds to be accessed at the same location. This can yield materially higher capacity factors, given that power output increases as a cubic function of wind speed. The higher turbine capacity also enables larger projects to be deployed and reduces the total installed cost per unit for some cost components (expressed in MW). 16 Figure 2.2 illustrates the evolution in average turbine rating and rotor diameter between 2010 and 2018 in some major onshore wind markets. Sweden, Germany, China and Canada stand out, with increases of greater than 40% in both the average rotor diameter and turbine capacity of their commissioned projects, between 2010 and 2018. In percentage terms, the largest increase in turbine capacity was observed in Ireland (104%) followed by Denmark (71%). The largest increase in rotor diameter occurred in Canada (78%) followed by China (60%). Of the countries considered, on average for 2018, Denmark and Sweden have the largest turbine rating and rotor diameters, respectively, while India had the lowest turbine rating and the United Kingdom had the lowest rotor diameter. Overall, in 2018 the country-level average capacity ranged from 1.96 MW to 3.59 MW, and rotor diameter from 100 metres (m) to 126 m. Wind turbine prices reached their previous low between 2000-2002, with this followed by a sharp increase in prices. This was attributed to increases in commodity prices (particularly cement, copper, iron and steel); supply chain bottlenecks; and improvements in turbine design, with larger and more efficient models introduced into the market. However, due to increased government renewable energy policy support for wind deployment, this period also coincided with a significant mismatch between high demand and tight supply, which enabled significantly higher margins for OEMs during this period. 14 Wind speeds, area for adequate spacing to reduce wake turbulence, and turbulence inducing terrain features. 15 Energy output increases as a squared function of the surface area, which is a key variable in the power output of a wind turbine. 16 Increasing turbine size does not lead to a proportional increase in the cost of other turbine components, e.g. towers, bearings, nacelle, etc. Thus, the increase in cost on a per unit basis is not as significant as might be expected. 48

ONSHORE WIND Figure 2.2 Weighted average rotor diameter and name plate capacity evolution, 2010-2018 130 120 2018 110 Rotor diameter (m) 100 90 80 70 2010 60 50 40 1 2 3 4 Nameplate capacity (MW) Brazil Canada China Denmark France Germany India Japan Sweden Turkey United Kingdom United States Source: Based on CanWEA, 2016; GlobalData (2020a); IEA Wind, 2020; Wiser and Bollinger, 2019; Danish Energy Agency, 2020; and Wood MacKenzie, 2020a. 49

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