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Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019

Die aktuellste Studie der IRENA zeigt auf, dass über die Hälfte des aus EE-Anlagen generierten Stroms, zu geringeren Kosten generiert werden kann, als bspw. Strom aus den neuesten Kohlekraftwerken. © IRENA 2020, IRENA (2020), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. www.irena.org

RENEWABLE POWER

RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 As supply chains grew and production capacity ramped up, wind turbine prices then peaked between 2007 and 2010, depending on the market, but have since fallen, by between 44% and 78% by the end of 2019, with the latest prices ranging between USD 560/kW and USD 830/kW (Figure 2.3). The experience in China was one of a dramatic price fall from 1998 - when the wind turbine price was around USD 2 480/kW - to the year 2002, then declining steadily to the point where the 2019 price was around an average of USD 530/kW. With greater competition among manufacturers, margins have come under increasing pressure, to the benefit of consumers. For instance, Vestas saw its turbine sales margins drop below 10% in 2019 (BNEF, 2020). This competition is being reinforced by the increased use of competitive procurement processes by a growing number of countries for the procurement of renewable energy. Increased competition has also led to acquisitions in the turbine and balance-of-plant sectors, and a trend of production moving to countries with lower manufacturing costs (Wood MacKenzie, 2020b). The decline in turbine prices globally has occurred despite the increase in rotor diameters, hub heights, and nameplate capacities. In addition, price differences between turbines with differing rotor diameters has narrowed. In 2019, this could be seen in the minimal percentage difference – 4% – between the prices of turbines with a rotor diameter above 100 m (USD 785/kW) and those with a rotor diameter of less than 100 m (USD 752/kW). Figure 2.3 Wind turbine price indices and price trends, 1997–2019 2 500 2 000 2019 USD/kW 1 500 1 000 500 0 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 United States 100 MW BNEF WTPI BNEF WTPI =100m Ø Chinese turbine prices Vestas average selling price Period % Decrease 2007-2011 17% 2010-2015 44% 2008-2016 56% 2009-2019 65% 2009-2019 64% 2010-2019 59% 1998-2019 78% 2008-2019 55% Source: Based on Wiser & Bollinger, 2019; BNEF, 2019a; Vestas Wind Systems, 2005–2020; and the IRENA Renewable Cost Database. 50

ONSHORE WIND ONSHORE WIND TOTAL INSTALLED COSTS The global weighted-average total installed cost of onshore wind projects fell by 72% between 1983 and 2019, from USD 5 179 to USD 1 473/kW, based on data from the IRENA Renewable Cost Database (Figure 2.4). Global average total installed costs have fallen by up to 9% for every doubling in cumulative onshore wind capacity deployed globally. This has been driven by wind turbine price and balance-of-plant cost reductions. The global weighted-average total installed cost of onshore wind fell by 24% between 2010 and 2019, from USD 1 949/kW to USD 1 473/kW, with a 5% decline year-on-year in 2019 . The trend in country-specific weighted-average total installed cost for 15 countries that are major wind markets and have significant time series data, are shown in Figure 2.5. Individual countries saw a range of cost reductions from 71% in India to just 2% in Turkey – but these comparisons need to be treated with caution, given the differing start dates for the first available data. Mexico saw an 8% increase over the period shown, with the first cost data point in 2007, when there was a low weighted-average total installed cost of USD 1 644/kW. This cost then increased, before falling in the period 2010-2019 as deployment accelerated. The more competitive, established markets show larger reductions in total installed costs over longer time periods than newer markets. There is, however, a wide range of individual project installed costs within a country and region. This is due to the different country and site-specific requirements, e.g. logistics limitations for transportation, local content policies, land-use limitations, labour costs, etc. Figure 2.4 Total installed costs of onshore wind projects and global weighted average, 1983-2019 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 1983 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 2019 USD/kW Capacity (MW) ≤ 10 100 200 300 400 ≥ 500 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database. 51

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